“It’s not over”- Four different scenarios that could play out and still see Leeds finish inside Top Two to secure automatic promotion ahead of Ipswich despite heartbreaking defeat to QPR
Leeds suffered a hammer blow to their automatic promotion hopes but all is not lost, just yet. Leeds United’s disastrous 4-0 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Friday evening means their automatic Championship promotion hopes hang by a thread.
The loss means Leicester City are now assured of a top-two finish and thus are now promoted to the Premier League, while Ipswich Town still have two games in hand. Daniel Farke will want to make sure that Leeds secure a win over Southampton next Saturday but they will know that their destiny is out of their hands.
Ipswich need two wins from their final three matches to secure promotion with Hull City, Coventry City and Huddersfield Town to play. If Leeds fail to defeat Southampton, the Tractor Boys will only need a maximum of three points to see them over the line.
However, there remains a glimmer of hope for Leeds, although a stark capitulation from Ipswich would be needed. If Ipswich fail to earn a single point out of the nine on offer, they will miss out on the top two.
A point itself will probably not be enough either due to Leeds’ superior goal difference, with a current gap of seven. Given this difference, if Leeds do beat Southampton, Ipswich would need to earn five points in their final three games.
This weekend’s fixture away at Hull will be tricky with the Tigers vying for a play-off place, currently three points off with two matches to go. Coventry have to win all of their three matches to hope to squeeze into the top six – albeit Norwich and West Brom would both have to go winless in their final two matches.
So by the time Ipswich go to the CBS Arena, the Sky Blues’ season might be over. Meanwhile, Huddersfield are fighting to stay in the division and could well need a win on the final day to stay up.
The Terriers face a crucial relegation clash with Birmingham City on Saturday. A failure to win could see them relegated before Ipswich host them on the final day of the season. Even if Southampton win both of their matches, they are unlikely to get second given their 15-goal difference deficit. So it’s safe to say this one is not over until it completely it is, that is; mathematically impossible anymore.
Summary of how Leeds could claim top two spot
1) Ipswich lose all three matches
2) Ipswich only earn one point in final three matches and Leeds stay second on goal difference despite loss vs Southampton
3) Leeds beat Southampton and Ipswich earn just three points, or four points with a worse goal difference
4) Leeds draw with Southampton and Ipswich earn just one point, or two with a worse goal difference
Leeds remaining matches
May 4: Southampton (H)
Ipswich remaining matches
April 27: Hull City (A)
April 30: Coventry City (A)
May 4: Huddersfield (H)
